Where Has the Excitement Gone? This Decline of the Goal Scoring

Football match action
Wolves recorded 10 fewer scores from open-play situations than this point last season.

One of the biggest stories of the EPL this campaign concerns the reduction of goals scored in open play and the way sides are netting more from set-pieces instead.

When we compare scoring methods to matchday 11 last season, there have been a drop of 39 goals in open-play and an increase of 26 from team set-pieces and spot-kicks, resulting in 13 fewer in total.

If we look at overall statistics, the number of shots sides are producing have seen a staggering drop of 370 in open play than at this stage last season.

And despite the notable jump in dead-ball scores, we've actually seen just two more attempts created from them excluding spot-kicks, indicating the proficiency teams have been at discovering methods to net from dead-ball chances.

Goal Averages Tell an Interesting Narrative

301 total goals recorded in 110 matches to date works out at 2.74 goals per game, if this persists for all 38 games could be the lowest for five years, back in 2020-21 (2.69 per game).

However, only 196 goals coming in open play equates to 1.78 per game and is tracking to be the least for 16 seasons, since 2009-10 (1.76 per game).

2009-10 also marks the only Premier League campaign to experience scoring more frequently from set-plays excluding penalties than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 per game (0.79).

What Clubs Are Most Responsible?

When it comes to goals scored from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have experienced by far the biggest drop, registering a mere four in 11 games, 10 fewer than this point last season.

Outside of Wolverhampton, England's top division's decline in open-play scoring is largely a London phenomenon, with five of the capital's seven sides netting five or more less scores from open-play than last season.

To be fair, that's largely down to their scoring many scores at the beginning of the previous campaign as opposed to them having difficulty to find the net in open-play the current term.

Conversely Manchester City have recorded the largest rise, with all but one of their 23 scores to date arriving in open-play.

Set-Play Proficiency

Comparing newly promoted sides with those that were relegated they replaced. Play-off winners the Black Cats have recorded an additional three scores in open play than Southampton achieved in matchday 11 leading to demotion the previous campaign.

Regarding scoring from dead-ball situations (aside from spot-kicks), the Gunners and the Blues have experienced the most significant jump, with each team compensating for the reduction of five goals that they've netted in open play with identical figures from set-pieces.

Manchester United have recorded two times more goals from set-pieces as they managed in matchday 11 the previous campaign prior to their coach assumed control, while Sunderland again are more effective at converting than the similar-colored team they replaced.

City seem unaware of the message about increasing scoring from set-plays, as they've netted three fewer than last season, like Forest, though this could be because of the altered approach they've attempted to adopt.

General Tendencies

Six sides – Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Newcastle, Spurs and the Hammers – have been the current campaign's primary examples by recording fewer goals from open play and additional from set-plays, while Manchester City stand as the unique club to go against the grain so far by doing the complete reverse.

It will be interesting to see if sides continue to rely so heavily on set-pieces as matches continue or if they rediscover their general attacking flair and start netting more goals in open play also.

Dr. Shawn Bell
Dr. Shawn Bell

A seasoned entrepreneur and startup coach with a passion for helping others succeed in the business world.