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Well. On one hand, Australia's protracted campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to put on the largest global climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Ankara declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a summit hindered from the leadership if his administration managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has empirically made a difference in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to lead negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. While some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the most promising opportunity possible to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.