Everyday Homicides in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent During the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Statistics

The average figure of per-day murders each month in Mexico has dropped by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by new official data. Nevertheless, security specialists have warned that homicide data may not point to improved national safety.

Marked Reduction in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 homicides a day in November as opposed to nearly 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidential office in September of last year. This data was delivered by the director of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that have been recorded in these past months is extremely notable,” Sheinbaum said, explaining that last month the lowest figure of homicides were documented for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Plan

Intense cartel rivalries, alongside the government’s heavily militarised operations to confront the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent times. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure over 4x greater than the US. Since then, murders have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 the previous year. The President has attributed her public safety strategy for an seemingly sharper drop in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President declared: “We have a strategy, we have oversight of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking locality by locality in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The main pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety plan include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Increased coordination between various departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

However, public safety analysts warned that relying on murder data to assess the situation of improved security was problematic. This is especially true given the rise in other crimes such as abductions.

“This would be excellent information if this were a reduction, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the murder numbers and think: ‘Alright, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

As reported by the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the identical timeframe last year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer reliable for estimating the situation of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who do not have the resources or the desire to properly recognize and classify remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month means of everyday killings was similarly concerning because it might hide days when there were notably elevated numbers of murders.

“Relying on the daily mean renders high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the government can highlight the success of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for serious crimes, according to official data. Over 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

Yet despite these actions, Mexico remains plagued by extreme violence, with a number of states in the midst of cartel-driven conflict. Recently there was a notable killing of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the past year.

A short time after, thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to voice their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to create a story of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s very problematic,” Vargas said.